Premier League Preview: Aston Villa - Arsenal

Aston Villa go into this Boxing Day clash from the commanding heights of third place in the Premier League, underlining that Martin O'Neill's impressive and pacy team are undoubtedly the most credible contenders from outside the traditional Big Four for Champions League qualification in 2009-10. What is also no longer in doubt is that Arsenal are the Big Four incumbents most at risk from the threat represented by Villa's challenge.

Indeed, since these two teams last met - at the Emirates as recently as 15 November - they have swapped places. Prior to that game just under six weeks ago, Arsenal were fairly buoyant after two well-received victories over Manchester United and (in the Carling Cup), Wigan Athletic. They were in third place, seeking a third straight win in all competitions, while Villa, in fifth, were anxious to avoid a third successive League defeat. They managed that, in some style, becoming only the third visiting side ever to win at the Emirates with a deserved and convincing 2-0 victory.

At that time, Villa needed to beat the Gunners by a five-goal margin to overtake them, but subsequent results have done the trick nicely for O'Neill's men. The Villans, who beat Arsenal through a Gael Clichy own goal on 70 minutes and a Gabriel Agbonlahor effort ten minutes later, then went on to hold champions Manchester United 0-0 at home, and returned a similar result at Villa Park against improving Fulham before winning dramatically 3-2 at Everton, beating Bolton 4-2 at home and triumphing 1-0 at West Ham. True, there were a couple of UEFA Cup defeats, with weakened teams, during that period, but not at the expense of the Birmingham club's progress to the knock-out stages of that competition. Agbonlahor and Ashley Young have been influential all season, contributing 14 Premier League goals between them so far, plus a raft of assists.

Meanwhile, Arsenal followed their loss against Villa with a humbling 3-0 defeat at Manchester City, bounced back to beat Chelsea 2-1 at Stamford Bridge and Wigan 1-0 at the Emirates, then recorded successive 1-1 draws at Middlesbrough and at home to Liverpool. In between they beat Dynamo Kiev but lost to Porto in the Champions League (though they have qualified for the next stage) and were eliminated from the Carling Cup by Championship side Burnley.

It has been a mixed bag of results for the North Londoners, typical of their season as a whole; but Arsene Wenger has also had other problems to deal with. Growing criticism of his transfer market frugality and emphasis on youth, together with the William Gallas affair and the captaincy issue, last weekend's serious injury to new skipper Cesc Fabregas and the red card for Emmanuel Adebayor, have compounded the Frenchman's most problematic season by far as Arsenal boss.

In contrast, O'Neill's stock continues to soar. The former Celtic boss is embellishing his reputation in the West Midlands as Villa move into pole position to disrupt the Big Four's cosy hegemony. The Ulsterman's progress was underlined by the fact that last month's win at the Emirates was Villa's first success over Arsenal, home or away, in 20 attempts - and they will be anxious to build on that by inflicting a double over the wounded Gunners.

Wenger of course continues to insist that Arsenal are still very much in the title mix (what else could he say?), and that the four teams currently above his own - Liverpool, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester United - will slip up at some stage as the Gunners strive to get back into a more challenging position. Although they remain eight points behind current leaders Liverpool, and outside the top four places, Arsenal must be relieved, if not encouraged, that this season's seems to be the title that no club has yet made a sustained push to win. All the contenders are dropping points - indeed, none of the 'Big Four' has won a match since 6th December, which has played nicely into Villa's hands.

Wenger said in the build-up to this game: "The title is won in May and we are in December. Mathematically we will fight until the end.

“I believe Liverpool will drop many points. I am convinced of that. They had four draws at home. That means they dropped eight points, why shouldn't they drop eight more in the second half of the season?”

He added: "Villa are mathematically in there but if you asked me if they are going to win the title I would say no because there are other teams who to me look better equipped.

"For a place in the top four, they are a threat.

"We are three points behind and have a good opportunity to come back on them. It is a very important game for us."

Villa manager Martin O'Neill is predictably playing down his club's fans' hopes of earning a Champions League place. But while trying to keep expectations in check and everyone's feet on the ground, even he admits there has been much progress at Villa Park since his arrival in 2006.

He said this week: “Two seasons ago during this period we would have been beaten by sides less capable than West Ham. There is a great determination about this team.”

"If we could win the [Arsenal] game it would give us a major psychological boost. It would be an amazing double if we could beat them at home as we defeated them at their place.

"Of course, if Arsenal win they will have caught up with us immediately. They are a talented team who have always qualified for the Champions League without a great deal of fuss."

Victory for Villa would widen the gap between themselves and the Gunners to six points. But they haven't beaten Arsenal at Villa Park for a decade, losing five - including last season’s corresponding fixture - and drawing four of the previous nine meetings on their own patch. Their last home win against Arsenal was in December 1998, when they came back from two-down to win 3-2 in a game also memorable for the injury sustained by Santa Claus as he parachuted into the stadium at half-time but hit the roof of a stand on his descent to earth.


FORM GUIDE

Aston Villa

20 Dec (Premier League) v West Ham (A) WON 1-0
17 Dec (UEFA Cup) v Hamburg (A) LOST 1-3
13 Dec (Premier League) v Bolton (H) WON 4-2
07 Dec (Premier League) v Everton (A) WON 3-2
04 Dec (UEFA Cup) v MSK Zilina (H) LOST 1-2
29 Nov (Premier League) v Fulham (H) DREW 0-0

Arsenal

21 Dec (Premier League) v Liverpool (H) DREW 1-1
13 Dec (Premier League) v Middlesbrough (A) DREW 1-1
10 Dec (Champions League) v FC Porto (A) LOST 0-2
06 Dec (Premier League) v Wigan (H) WON 1-0
02 Dec (Carling Cup) v Burnley (A) LOST 0-2
30 Nov (Premier League) v Chelsea (A) WON 2-1


TEAM NEWS

Aston Villa

John Carew (back) and Wilfred Bouma (ankle) are ruled out, and O'Neill may be without Martin Laursen, who has a knee injury, and Carlos Cuellar, who was substituted after sustaining a heavy challenge during the 1-0 win at West Ham. If neither make it, Nigel Reo-Coker and Zat Knight could be handed starts.

Squad: Friedel, Cuellar, Laursen, Davies, L Young, Milner, Sidwell, Petrov, Barry, A Young, Agbonlahor, Reo-Coker, Knight, Shorey, Harewood, Gardner, Salifou, Osbourne, Guzan.

Last Starting XI (v West Ham): Friedel, Cuellar (Reo-Coker 58), Davies, Laursen, Luke Young, Petrov, Milner, Sidwell, Barry, Ashley Young, Agbonlahor.
Subs Not Used: Guzan, Harewood, Delfouneso, Knight, Shorey, Gardner.


Arsenal

Injuries continue to blight the Gunners' season, and the blow they suffered last Sunday against Liverpool, losing captain Cesc Fabregas for possibly four months with a damaged medial knee ligament, was the heaviest yet.

Fabregas now joins Tomas Rosicky (whose hamstring problem has kept him sidelined for nearly 12 months), Theo Walcott (shoulder), Eduardo (out since February with a broken leg), Kolo Toure (calf) and Nicklas Bendtner (knee) on the unavailable-through-injury list. Meanwhile, striker Emmanuel Adebayor is suspended following his red card against Liverpool.

Squad: Almunia, Sagna, Nasri, Gallas, Djourou, Clichy, Denilson, Song, Diaby, Wilshere, Eboue, Fabianski, Vela, Ramsey, Van Persie, Bendtner, Toure, Silvestre.

Last Starting XI (v Liverpool): Almunia, Sagna, Djourou, Gallas, Clichy, Denilson, Fabregas
(Diaby 46), Song Billong, Nasri (Eboue 90), Adebayor, Van Persie.
Subs Not Used: Fabianski, Vela, Ramsey, Silvestre, Wilshere.


PLAYERS TO WATCH

Aston Villa

Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor will again be the biggest threats to Arsenal, given their pace and penetration and the vulnerability at the centre of the Gunners' defence. And midfielder Steve Sidwell will be keen to shine against the club with whom he started his career - while goalkeeper Brad Friedel will be extending his record-breaking run to 171 consecutive Premier League appearances.

Arsenal

Gael Clichy will no doubt relish the challenge of trying to contain Young, and will want to put in a decent performance after conceding an own goal in the reverse fixture. A problem for Arsene Wenger will be deciding who will replace Cesc Fabregas in central midfield, and of course who will captain the team. Abou Diaby will probably be a candidate for the former role (though Aaron Ramsey, on his 18th birthday, could be a surprise choice), while Manuel Almunia will probably be given the arm-band - unless Clichy gets a crack at it.